UPDATED 4:00 P.M.
(Reuters) – Much of the United States remained gripped by an Arctic blast on Monday, cutting power to tens of thousands of customers in northern states and Texas and potentially dampening turnout in Iowa, where voters will cast the first ballots for a Republican candidate in November’s presidential race.
The dangerously frigid weather is expected to linger throughout the day, hitting the Midwest hardest but also sending snow and freezing rain across the Southern and Mid-Atlantic states, the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) said in a Monday bulletin.
Temperatures in Iowa are expected to plummet to a life-threatening -35 degrees Fahrenheit (-37 Celsius) on Monday night, when voters assemble at public gatherings called caucuses to select a Republican presidential nominee.
The hazardous conditions prompted Republican candidates to cancel campaign events on Sunday as a blizzard blanketed the state, even while they urged supporters to brave the icy temperatures and turn out to vote.
Monday’s extreme weather could keep some voters home, but it is unlikely to change the commanding lead that polls give former President Donald Trump over his chief rivals, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley.
Wind chills are forecast to dip as low as -58 degrees Fahrenheit (-50 Celsius) in states including Montana, South Dakota and North Dakota.
FLIGHTS AND POWER DISRUPTED
Thousands of flights within, into, and out of the United States were delayed or canceled on Monday, with Denver International Airport and Chicago O’Hare International Airport experiencing the worst disruptions, according to flight-tracking website FlightAware.com.
Power was restored in many places where the winter storm had knocked it out over the weekend, but as of midday Monday, lights remained out for more than 100,000 customers in Oregon as well as tens of thousands in Texas, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, according to data from PowerOutage.US.
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) asked customers to conserve electricity from 6-10 a.m. on Monday due to ongoing freezing temperatures, record-breaking demand and unseasonably low wind, and said similar conditions were expected on Tuesday.
The icy weather froze wells across the United States on Sunday, sending U.S. natural gas output to a preliminary 11-month low while gas demand for heating and power generation skyrocketed.
(Reporting by Julia Harte; Editing by Mark Porter)
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UPDATED 3:37 P.M.
DES MOINES, Iowa (Reuters) -Republican presidential candidates on Monday headed out for a final, frigid day of campaigning in Iowa, where Donald Trump is the overwhelming favorite to stake an early claim to the party’s 2024 presidential nomination.
The former president’s dominant position has turned Iowa’s first-in-the-nation contest into a race for second place, as both Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley are aiming for a clear runner-up finish to emerge as the chief alternative to Trump.
“If you’re willing to brave the cold and turn out for me, I’ll be fighting for you for the next eight years, and we’re going to turn this country around,” DeSantis told a crowd in Sergeant Bluff.
A commanding victory for Trump in Iowa would bolster his argument that he is the only Republican candidate capable of taking on Democratic President Joe Biden in the November election.
It would also spell trouble for his challengers, especially DeSantis, who has wagered his campaign on Monday’s Iowa caucus, pouring resources into the Midwestern state and barnstorming all of its 99 counties.
A third-place finish could prove fatal to DeSantis’ prospects. Polls show the Florida governor far behind Trump and Haley in the more moderate state of New Hampshire, where Republicans will choose their nominee eight days from now.
Both DeSantis and Haley have expressed confidence they will exceed expectations in Iowa, though neither has predicted victory.
At a diner in Des Moines, Haley predicted that other candidates will be forced to drop out in the weeks to come. “This will be a two-person race with me and Donald Trump,” she told supporters.
Unlike his rivals, Trump did not attend campaign events, relying instead on surrogates to rally his supporters.
“We know him, we trust him, and he’s the man that we need back in the White House,” Republican Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene said at a brewery in Fort Dodge.
WEATHER, CROSSOVER VOTERS
The life-threatening cold blanketing the Midwest forced the campaigns to cancel several events over the weekend and could dampen turnout on Monday.
Unlike a regular election, Iowa’s caucuses require voters to gather in person on Monday evening in small groups at churches, schools and community centers, where they cast secret ballots after speeches from campaign representatives.
Iowa Republican Party Chair Jeff Kaufmann said on Sunday those speeches could play an outsized role this time because candidates had to cancel so many events due to the weather.
Caucus meetings will start at 7 p.m. CST (0100 GMT on Tuesday) and results are expected a few hours after that.
Another potential wild card: an unknown number of the state’s Democratic voters have registered as Republicans to try to influence the caucus results.
“I just want to be able to look back and say I did what I could to keep Donald Trump from getting elected,” said Toni Van Voorhis, 65, one such crossover voter, who plans to back Haley.
Iowa Democrats will hold caucuses of their own to conduct party business, but they will not vote on Monday for other presidential hopefuls because the party has reshuffled its nominating calendar to put states with more diverse populations ahead of Iowa this year. They will cast their ballots by mail, with the results to be released in March.
The National Weather Service predicted the wind chill temperature could reach minus 45 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 43 degrees Celsius) in some parts of the state.
There was record turnout at the 2016 Republican caucus, with about 187,000 votes cast, or approximately 29% of the state’s registered Republican voters. Republican turnout was closer to 18% in 2012.
Trump’s grip on his most loyal supporters may give him an edge if the freezing conditions convince some voters to stay home.
“Trump is proven to get things done,” said Austin Rasch, 30, a general contractor from Fort Dodge who predicted strong turnout. “It’s Iowa. We’re used to cold.”
Iowa has historically played an outsized role in presidential campaigns due to its early spot on the campaign calendar.
But in 2008, 2012 and 2016 — the last three competitive races — the winner of Iowa’s Republican caucuses did not go on to secure the nomination.
Once a political battleground, the state is now seen as reliably Republican in presidential elections.
Trump has maintained a decisive lead in national polls despite facing four separate indictments, including state and federal prosecutions centered on his efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss to Biden, who will face the Republican nominee in November’s general election.
Trump has continued to claim falsely that Biden’s 2020 victory was the result of voter fraud.
Read Reuters’ full U.S. election coverage here:
(Reporting by Tim Reid, Gabriella Borter and Nathan Layne in IowaWriting by Andy Sullivan and Joseph AxEditing by Lisa Shumaker, Heather Timmons and Matthew Lewis)
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DES MOINES, Iowa (Reuters) – Donald Trump is the overwhelming favorite to push past his rivals and stake an early claim to the Republican presidential nomination when Iowans brave bone-chilling temperatures on Monday to cast the first votes in the 2024 campaign.
The former president’s dominant position has turned Iowa’s first-in-the-nation contest into a race for second place, as both Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley are aiming for a clear runner-up finish to emerge as the chief alternative to Trump.
A commanding victory for Trump in Iowa would bolster his argument that he is the only candidate in the Republican field capable of taking on Democratic President Joe Biden in the November election. It would also spell trouble for his challengers, especially DeSantis, who has wagered his campaign’s viability on Monday’s Iowa caucus, pouring resources into the Midwestern state and barnstorming all of its 99 counties.
A survey released on Saturday from an influential Iowa pollster showed DeSantis had slipped behind Haley, garnering 16% of the state’s Republican voters to her 20%, with Trump far ahead at 48%.
A strong second-place showing for either Haley or DeSantis would keep alive the notion that Trump’s march toward the nomination is not a foregone conclusion.
For DeSantis, a third-place finish could prove fatal to his prospects as the campaign shifts to the more moderate state of New Hampshire, where Republicans will choose their nominee eight days after Iowa. Polls there show Haley cutting into Trump’s lead, while the Florida governor remains far behind.
Both DeSantis and Haley expressed confidence that they would exceed expectations on Monday, though they were careful not to predict victory.
“I have a record of doing well as the underdog … we’re gonna do well,” DeSantis told Fox News on Sunday.
“The only numbers that matter are the ones that we’re going up and everybody else went down,” Haley told the network. “And that shows that we’re doing the right thing.”
The life-threatening cold blanketing the Midwest, which already forced the campaigns to cancel several events over the weekend, could dampen turnout on Monday. Unlike a regular election, Iowa’s caucuses require voters to gather in person on Monday evening in small groups at churches, schools and community centers, where they cast secret ballots after speeches from campaign representatives.
On the campaign trail on Sunday, the candidates urged supporters to caucus despite the arctic conditions.
“Brave the weather and go out and save America,” Trump said at a rally in Indianola.
The National Weather Service predicted the wind chill temperature could reach minus 45 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 43 degrees Celsius) in some parts of the state.
Trump’s grip on his most loyal supporters may give him an edge if the freezing conditions convince some voters to stay home. The Iowa poll released on Saturday showed Trump had far more backers who were “extremely” or “very” enthusiastic about caucusing on Monday.
“Trump creates his own turnout,” said Brad Boustead, an officer with the Republican Party in Urbandale, Iowa, who attended Trump’s rally. “The Trump people aren’t going to be afraid of the weather.”
Iowa has historically played an outsized role in presidential campaigns due to its primacy on the campaign calendar. Candidates often spend months fanning out across the state and introducing themselves to voters, and many campaigns have ended after a poor showing.
In 2008, 2012 and 2016, however – the last three competitive races – the winner of Iowa’s Republican caucuses did not go on to secure the nomination, in part because Iowa’s large evangelical population means the state is more socially conservative than the country as a whole.
Trump has maintained an impressive lead in national polls despite facing four separate indictments, including state and federal prosecutions centered on his efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss to Biden, who will face the Republican nominee in November’s general election.
Trump has continued to claim falsely that Biden’s victory was the result of voter fraud.
(Reporting by Tim Reid, Gabriella Borter and Nathan Layne; Writing by Joseph Ax; Editing by Lisa Shumaker)
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