By Lucia Mutikani
WASHINGTON, Feb 11 (Reuters) – U.S. job growth accelerated in January and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, signs of labor market stability that could give the Federal Reserve room to keep interest rates unchanged for some time while policymakers monitor inflation.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 130,000 jobs last month after a downwardly revised 48,000 rise in December, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls advancing by 70,000 jobs. Estimates ranged from a loss of 10,000 jobs to a gain of 135,000 positions.
The unemployment rate fell from 4.4% in December.
Part of the better-than-expected increase in payrolls was because seasonally sensitive industries like retailers and delivery companies hired fewer holiday workers than usual last year. January is typically the biggest month for holiday-related layoffs. Given the low seasonal hiring, layoffs were probably fewer, lifting payroll gains.
Trade policy continued to cast a shadow on the labor market, they said, nodding to President Donald Trump’s threat last month of additional tariffs on European allies for rebuffing his demands for the U.S. to buy Greenland. Trump later abruptly backed down. The employment report, initially due last Friday, was delayed by the three-day shutdown of the federal government.
Effective with the January report, the BLS updated the birth-and-death model by incorporating current sample information each month. This model, which is a method the BLS uses to try to estimate how many jobs were gained or lost because of companies opening or closing in a given month, has been blamed for an overcounting of payrolls.
The update to the birth-and-death model, which follows the same methodology applied to the April-October 2024 estimates after the annual benchmark payrolls revision, could result in as many as 50,000 fewer jobs added to payroll growth than in recent months, economists estimated.
Despite the increase in payrolls in January, the labor market remains lackluster and has struggled even as economic growth has been robust. Anxiety over jobs and high inflation has eroded Americans’ approval of Trump’s handling of the economy.
Economists said the Trump administration’s trade and immigration policies have chilled the labor market, though they expected tax cuts to boost hiring this year.
The U.S. central bank last month left its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range.
White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett on Monday warned of lower job gains in the months ahead because of slower labor force growth. The Census Bureau last week said the nation’s population increased by just 1.8 million people, or 0.5%, to 341.8 million in the year ending June 2025.
Trump made cracking down on U.S. immigration a cornerstone of his election campaign. The BLS will next month introduce new annual population controls for the household survey with February’s employment report after they were delayed by last year’s 43-day government shutdown. These adjust for updated population estimates, including migration.
The unemployment rate is derived from the household survey.
Given the reduction in the labor force, economists believe the economy needs to create about 50,000 jobs per month or even less to keep up with growth in the working-age population.
(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Chizu Nomiyama)
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