By Balint Szalavari
PEORIA, Ill. (25 News) – Wednesday is a First Alert Weather Day due to the elevated risk for severe weather capable of all hazards. While Wednesday is the main focus in the forecast, an isolated severe weather threat also exists for Tuesday.
Wednesday’s Severe Weather Potential
The early Tuesday morning severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded a majority of Central Illinois to a level 4 out of 5 Moderate Risk for severe weather, meaning numerous severe storms are possible. This was a tornado risk driven upgrade due to the potential for tornadoes, including a few strong (EF-3 or stronger) strength tornadoes. The peak tornado threat will be dependent on where a warm front lines up later in the day Wednesday.
The first half of Wednesday will feature scattered thunderstorms riding along the warm front, driven by a complex of storms developing tonight off to our west. This will be a feature to watch, as it may limit the northward extent of the front. As of now, the front is expected to lift into parts of northern Illinois, Indiana and Ohio serving as a boundary for storm development. The main window for morning storms will run from 7-11 AM based off the latest guidance. A severe storm or two cannot be ruled out with morning storms, but the second half of the day features the greatest threat.
After morning storms end, we will see some dry time for the midday into the early afternoon. This will be the period where the atmosphere recovers and builds energy for afternoon and evening storms. Storms will look to fire off along the warm front. These storms would be the most primed for tornadoes in a rich warm sector along the warm front. Additional storms will develop ahead of an approaching cold front. Once the front passes, our severe weather threat will conclude. The main timing for storms will run from the mid afternoon into the early evening, likely from a roughly 2-7 PM window.
All severe weather hazards are possible, with tornadoes and damaging winds up to 75 miles per hour as our primary threats. A few strong tornadoes (EF-3 or stronger) strength are possible, which is the main reason for the morning upgrade to a Moderate Risk. Large hail an inch or greater in diameter is also possible. Isolated flooding due to locally heavy rainfall is possible, but that is our most isolated threat. With all hazards in play, make sure you have multiple ways to get severe weather notifications.
A Few Storms Possible Tuesday
Before Wednesday storms arrive, we still have the chance for a few storms on Tuesday with a weaker cold front approaching. Storms are possible Tuesday morning, including the threat for an isolated severe storm for Knox County and areas east of I-55. Should any severe storm occur, damaging winds and isolated hail would be the primary threats. Storm chances will be widely scattered, with many likely seeing a dry to mostly dry day today. Once the front passes, sunny weather will return for the second half of the day. Expect highs in the mid to upper 70’s.
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