By Balint Szalavari–First Alert Meteorologist
CENTRAL ILLINOIS (25 News) – Wednesday is a First Alert Weather Day with the potential for widespread severe storms across Central Illinois. Two rounds of storms can be expected, with the second round featuring the greater risk for severe weather.
A few factors may limit our local intensity, but in a worst case scenario all severe weather hazards including strong tornadoes and damaging winds are possible.
Round One – Wednesday Morning
Our first round of storms will arrive this morning with a disturbance approaching from the northwest along a lifting warm front. While this round of storms is not the main focus as far as our severe weather threat goes, locally heavy rainfall and an isolated severe storm or two will still be possible. Our primary threat Wednesday morning would be damaging winds and isolated hail. This first round of storms is expected to pass mainly from a 7am-12pm timeframe.
Round Two – Wednesday Afternoon And Evening
We will likely see a break from the rainfall for the early afternoon, giving the atmosphere time to recover and build energy for additional storms later in the day. Forecast models highlight a strong southwesterly wind for the afternoon, driving in a humid air mass which will likely aid in a short recovery period. Storm chances will increase again mainly after 4 pm, quickly moving east-southeast. Due to the strong atmospheric winds, storm motion will be fast, with storms likely racing across Central Illinois around 60 miles per hour. As a result, our overall severe weather window for the afternoon into the evening will not last long, with storms likely exiting Central Illinois by 7:30 to 8 pm.
One of the key features that will impact this round of storms will be the positioning of the warm front later in the day. If Wednesday morning’s storms limit how far north the warm front lifts, it could help decrease our severe weather potentially locally and keep the greatest threat to our east and southeast. Models have shifted the front southward a bit over the last 24 hours, placing it between I-80 and I-74. Should the front remain further south, this would be one of our “failure modes” which would keep the worst of the severe weather out of Central Illinois. This feature will not become more clear until later in the day as our morning storms end.
All severe weather hazards are possible Wednesday with damaging winds and a few strong tornadoes (EF-3 or stronger) are the primary threats. Locally heavy rainfall and large hail are also possible.
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